Original article Total Telecom:Read More
Contributed Article
by Pete Harvey, Senior Product Manager Subsea, Starboard Maritime Intelligence
When Starboard published Cable Risk Intelligence 2026 (Issue 1) in April, the Persian Gulf scored 4.6 out of 5.0 on our risk index, the highest of the 25 cable landing zones we assessed globally. At the time, that rating was grounded in a combination of geopolitical tension, high traffic density, constrained repair access, and documented vessel behaviour around cable routes in the region.
Since then, the situation has deteriorated further. Iran has explicitly threatened to sever submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz as part of the 2026 conflict, with state media circulating maps of Gulf undersea cable routes. At least 17 cable systems transit the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, carrying the majority of data traffic between Asia and Europe. Cable construction work across the Gulf has come to a standstill because repair ships can’t operate in active conflict zones.
The Persian Gulf rating was a forecast of the conditions that have now materialised.
The window of opportunity
Most operators find out a cable is at risk through a service degradation report from a customer, an optical monitoring alarm, or a repair dispatch. By the time any of those signals fire, the cable is already cut, and the repair window begins. Under normal conditions, that window averages 40 days for a deepwater fault. In a conflict zone there’s no definitive end.
The solution is to collate and analyse the risk data within the prevention window, giving operators a chance to intervene before a cable is struck.
Whether accidental or deliberate, every cable incident is preceded by vessel behaviour that is detectable before damage occurs. An anchor drag begins as a vessel drifting over a known route. A trawler working a protected zone slows to trawling speed before it makes contact. A vessel executing a deliberate act loiters, changes course without apparent purpose, or goes dark in a sensitive area. If you’re looking for them in the right way with the right tools, these patterns can be seen in the data before the fault event.
Early detection in practice
Starboard fuses AIS, satellite data, fibre sensing (DAS and SoP), and bathymetry into a single operational view, then applies behavioural models to flag when vessel activity near a cable route deviates from established patterns. The output is a prioritised alert with enough vessel data for a Marine Operations Centre or an operator to act.
In a New Zealand cable protection trial conducted with the New Zealand Government, commercial cable owners, and a marine operations centre, this approach generated 86 alerts, prompted 17 VHF vessel calls, and resulted in three vessels changing course, none of which required waiting for a fault signal.
When Starboard’s vessel risk alerts are integrated directly into a carrier’s NOC software, response time drops from 25 minutes to 3. The compressed timeline from signal to action is where damage is prevented.
Hormuz
The events of 2026 have clarified that ambiguity is itself a threat vector. When a vessel drags anchor over a cable, attribution is uncertain. When a sanctioned vessel transits a cable corridor slowly and without AIS, intent is unclear. When a cable is cut in or near a conflict zone, the line between accident and deliberate act is difficult to establish, and difficult to act on legally or operationally.
Starboard’s behavioural models are designed to provide information, clarity, and explanation that shed light on the. They flag deviations from established traffic patterns even when AIS data is absent or inconsistent, and correlate vessel activity with known risk indicators to deliver an assessed picture rather than a raw data feed.
This is the operating environment the Submarine Networks EMEA and Subsea Security Summit communities are navigating in 2026. The technology to detect threatening behaviour before it causes damage exists today. The question is whether it’s integrated into the operational workflows of the teams who need it.
Read the full risk index
Cable Risk Intelligence 2026 (Issue 1) covers 25 cable landing zones across the Baltic, Red Sea, Taiwan Strait, North Sea, Persian Gulf, and trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific corridors. The interactive map and full methodology are available at starboardintelligence.com/learn/where-submarine-cables-are-most-at-risk-in-2026.
Starboard Maritime Intelligence provides maritime domain awareness that helps governments, defence agencies, and critical infrastructure operators detect risks, prevent threats, and build resilience in real time. Partners include Ciena, Tampnet, Alcatel Submarine Networks, Kordia, and Searisk.
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The post The Persian Gulf topped our 2026 cable risk index. Here’s what it means for operators and what they can do about it appeared first on Total Telecom.