The UK telecoms regulator, Ofcom, has today published the third edition of their forecast for Planned Network Deployments, which predicts that full fibre (FTTP) broadband ISP lines are on course to cover 95-96% of all UK properties by May 2027 (29 million premises) – rising to 97-98% for “gigabit-capable” networks (i.e. FTTP and Cable).
According to the regulator’s latest data to January 2024 (here), some 62% (18.7m) of UK homes are currently within reach of a Fibre-to-the-Premises (FTTP) network (up from 48% in Jan 2023) and this rises to 80% for gigabit-capable networks (up from 73%). The latter is being driven by both FTTP from multiple operators and Virgin Media’s older cable DOCSIS 3.1 network (there’s a lot of overbuild between these in urban areas).
The new report goes further and, based on the stated deployment plans of network operators as of May 2024 (looking up to 3 years in advance), attempts to predict how much coverage will be achieved by May 2027. These plans include those that are privately funded as well as any plans that are supported through public funds/intervention.
The vast majority of this FTTP and gigabit-capable broadband coverage tends to come from commercial builds – mostly in urban areas, although rural areas will also see substantial network upgrades. The UK Government’s £5bn Project Gigabit programme is specifically focused on the final 10-20% of hardest to reach premises (i.e. aiming to extend gigabit coverage to at least 85% of UK premises by the end of 2025 and then around 99% “nationwide” by 2030).
If all of the planned deployments are realised, Ofcom’s report forecasts that gigabit-capable networks in urban areas could increase from 22 million premises (85%) today to 25.6m (99%) in 2027 and from 2.1m (49%) to 3.8m (88%) in rural areas. But this picture varies a fair bit across the different regions and local authorities.
The following forecast splits the figures down across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Ofcom also gives an additional “High Confidence” forecast, which gives a forecast for coverage from plans that have reached both the Low Level Design stage and for which funding has actually been committed (this excludes a lot of highly likely, but not yet 100% committed, build plans).
In addition, Ofcom’s new data also has a look at overbuild between rival networks and estimates that up to 81% of UK properties will be able to take gigabit-capable services from two or more providers by 2027. Finally, the regulator also anticipates an expansion of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) networks offering speeds of 100Mbit/s+. “Our data reports that, over the planned period, around 4,300 further FWA masts are being planned or upgraded across the UK, in addition to around 28,500 existing ones, that may be capable of offering high speed broadband,” although they acknowledged that mapper the actual reach and performance of such networks was difficult.